Monday, July 1, 2013

The 10 most difficult NBA free agency decisions

The Los Angeles Lakers have billboards dedicated to convincing Dwight Howard to stay. The Los Angeles Clippers paid out a draft pick and a huge salary for coach Doc Rivers in order to appease Chris Paul.
Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers have spent the offseason distancing themselves from Andrew Bynum and the one-year, zero-game fiasco that came with him, even trading All-Star point guard Jrue Holiday for draft pick Nerlens Noel, their center of the future.
DRAFT GRADES: Eastern Conference teams
DRAFT GRADES: Western Conference teams
Some NBA free agency decisions are easy. USA TODAY Sports' Sean Highkin and Adi Joseph break down 10 complicated situations:
SG Andre Iguodala and SG Corey Brewer, Denver Nuggets
SH: Keep Brewer, not Iguodala. Iguodala is the better player, but letting George Karl and Masai Ujiri go proves the Nuggets are cutting costs, and the eight-figure salary he will command doesn't fit with that plan. Brewer is younger, doesn't cost as much and has yet to reach his prime.
AJ: Keep Iguodala, not Brewer. The reverse seems more likely, but Iguodala is the heart of the Nuggets' defense, which tremendously improved after adding him last year. They have depth, so Brewer isn't needed. Iguodala keeps this team relevant.
PG Brandon Jennings and SG Monta Ellis, Milwaukee Bucks
SH: Let them go. The Bucks' ceiling is the No. 8 seed, single-round fate they met this season. Jennings is the safer bet, but he's sure to command a big contract. Using that money to lock up Larry Sanders long-term is more important.
AJ: Keep Jennings, not Ellis. These two undersized gunners shouldn't have been in the same backcourt. But Jennings still has great upside and is the face of the franchise for now. He's worth more to Milwaukee than anyone else.
C Al Jefferson and PF Paul Millsap, Utah Jazz
SH: Let them go. The Jazz have two promising young bigs in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors and landed a third, Rudy Gobert, in the draft. Jefferson and Millsap will cost too much and require too many minutes to let them develop properly.
AJ: Keep Millsap, not Jefferson. Gobert is years away from contributing. Millsap would be ideal to play in a three-big rotation with Kanter and Favors. He'll be cheaper than Jefferson and provide great energy as a starter or reserve.
SG J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
SH: Keep him, at a discount. The Bucks and other teams are showing interest, and they have more money to offer than the Knicks do. But if he's willing to stay for cheap, he's worth keeping around.
AJ: Let him go. Smith had the best season of his career, but he's not likely to stay out of trouble and shoot consistently again. Draft pick Tim Hardaway Jr. can fill his role while the Knicks look for interior help.
PF Josh Smith, Atlanta Hawks
SH: Let him go. Smith has made it clear he wants a max contract, and the Hawks are one year removed from getting rid of Joe Johnson's boondoggle of a deal. Using Smith's money to go after a wing defender like Iguodala or Tony Allen makes more sense.
AJ: Let him go. Smith is an Atlanta native who has spent his entire career with the team. But he's not worth the max contract he wants. If someone else is going to give it to him, let them. The Hawks can rebuild more efficiently without him.
SF Andrei Kirilenko, Minnesota Timberwolves
SH: Keep him. Injuries kept the T'wolves from playoff contention last year. Kirilenko was one of their most solid players at both ends and one of the few veterans on the team. If they're looking to contend this year, it's absolutely worth bringing him back.
AJ: Keep him. Kirilenko was rejuvenated by a year back in Russia, where he played with T'wolves guard Alexey Shved. He fits the team and provides important leadership.
SG O.J. Mayo, Dallas Mavericks
SH: Keep him. If the Mavericks miss out on Howard, they'll have no dependable scoring threats outside of Dirk Nowitzki. Mayo played well enough last season to earn a raise.
AJ: Keep him, at a reasonable price. Mayo's hot start to last season had the look of a player knowing it's a contract season. He cooled off when Nowitzki returned. He's valuable, but a generic scoring guard isn't hard to find.
SG Tony Allen, Memphis Grizzlies
SH: Keep him. Allen is one of the best wing defenders in the league, and he fits well if the current core stays in tact. If they decide to rebuild in the next few years, his reputation as a defender will make him easy to move.
AJ: Let him go. The Grizzlies have so many great defenders, and Allen's offensive ineptness really hurt them in the Western Conference finals. Finding someone who can score and defend, even if not on Allen's level, should be a priority.
C Nikola Pekovic, Minnesota Timberwolves
SH: Keep him. The T'wolves need to convince Kevin Love that they're committed to building a winner, and part of that is paying up to keep their starting center in the fold.
AJ: Keep him. Pekovic may be the most underrated player in the NBA. He's not worth a maximum contract, but he's worth matching what other teams can offer.
PG Nate Robinson, Chicago Bulls
SH: Keep him, depending on the deal. Robinson's play in the postseason should earn him a raise in dollars, but giving him a multiyear guaranteed deal is a huge risk.
AJ: Let him go. The Bulls needed Robinson last year with Derrick Rose out, but they would be wise to find more sustainable bench help than a 29-year-old, 5-9 gunner whose value has never been higher.
PHOTOS: Top 20 free agents available this offseason

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